Where are the billions of rupees spent on autonomous vehicles by American and Chinese companies going?

 

Apollo Robotaxi operates in Shogang Park as Baidu launched China's first driverless taxi service on May 2, 2021 in Beijing, China.

Qianlong.com | Visual Chain Group | Getty Images

Over the years, Waimo and other leaders of the alphabet have promised that autonomous vehicles are around the corner. But that future has not yet come. why not?

"In a word, it's a complication," said James Peng, CEO and co-founder of Pony.ai, an autonomous automotive company. "Whenever there is a technological advancement, there are challenges. We have AI, fast computer chips, sensors. All these pieces can be easily solved by fitting them together. 99.9% to complete the technology. Not good enough. "

Despite promises to save lives, combat climate change and drive cheaper, the reality is that "autonomous car Nirvana is about to turn 10," said Michael Dunn, CEO of autotech consultancy ZoZoGo. "Although it is not impossible to get there, even the most advanced technologies are not yet there and are mainly used in the limited areas where things can be estimated. We are far from universal acceptance."

Not only that, but the business model is a bigger challenge than technology, "he said.

The scale of self-driving vehicles without steering wheels or brake pedals has been slow and many see it as a novelty. Additional road tests are needed to eliminate technical glitches. Driverless driving regulations are still being developed by city, state and country. For AV-equipped autos, tags over $ 100,000 are a flaw in individual purchases for most buyers. Commercialization is still going on. Safety concerns persist, especially after a fatal crash of one of Uber's vehicles in Tempe, Arizona in March 2018 and several incidents of Teslas driving in self-driving mode.

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Still, market leaders are betting heavily on smarter transit technology and testing its feasibility, training self-driving algorithms and AI sensors to drive better than humans in all kinds of weather and unpredictable conditions. There are thousands of miles to go. Tech giants, car makers, and startups including GM's Cruise, Waymo, Baidu, and others have invested billions of dollars and years of R&D in this emerging market, accounting for 12% of global new car registrations by 2030. Ready to reach Tesla, meanwhile, is working on its own semi-autonomous autopilot and self-driving system.

Robotics, a promising future for robot delivery

Now, a decade later and with some glitches starting, it's robotics, robot-driven delivery, and autonomous trucks that are emerging as the most lucrative market.

"Ride Healing is a lousy business model with unhappy human drivers and urban mobility issues. The next big thing could be a fleet of robotics," said Eric Gordon, a professor at the University of Michigan. Focus on entrepreneurship and technology. He envisions city lanes without accidents, honking horns, traffic jams, and lanes for self-driving cars.

In this next phase of passenger and road testing, technical complications are increasing with unpredictable traffic patterns and weather factors such as fog and rain, as well as long-standing social awareness and acceptance issues.

Dongwei, vice president and chief safety operations officer at Baidu Intelligent Driving Business Group in Beijing, said "there is still a long way to go before autonomous driving can be commercialized on a large scale."

The payment of passenger fares in robotics without a driver could be the next step in the commercial development of this changing market.

Pony.ai, which ranks No. 10 on the 2022 CNBC Disruptor 50 list, along with Baidu in Beijing, has led the industry in launching rental robotics for the public in China. The two companies began charging for their robotics services in Beijing last November, with a safety driver overseeing the ride. In addition, Pony.ai is launching a free taxi service this May, which includes 100 AVs as conventional taxis in Guangzhou's Nansha District. Both are testing AVs and robotics in the United States, although Pony.ai's driverless tests were suspended in California after a vehicle collided with a lane divider and a street sign in Fremont.

China is targeting smart transportation as a national development strategy and has designated several parts of major cities for testing. "If you're looking for the perfect place to test autonomous driving, it's hard to beat China for its ambitions," Dunn said.

While the Chinese and US markets are developing in parallel, given the US-China tech innovation competition and restrictions on cross-border investment, an understandable scenario is that "two global ecosystems, one led by China. The other is the US-led government, with its own systems and governments, "Dunn said. "China does not want US companies to free up data, and China's testing in the United States faces the same problem. Chinese AV companies will likely maintain R&D in the United States but remain stationed in China for China."

In the United States, industry leaders Waymo and Cruise expect to launch their paid driverless robotics in San Francisco soon after months of trial rides with employees. In addition, Waymo plans to increase driverless rides to subway downtown Phoenix by the end of 2018 to pay customers in suburban chandeliers after charging their fees.

Argo AI launches driverless operations in Miami and Austin.

Courtesy: Argo AI

Ford and VW-backed Argo-AI have begun operating autonomous test vehicles without a human safety driver in Miami and Austin, Texas, revolving around employees. Argo is testing its self-driving technology on the roads in eight cities in the US and Europe, with some of its vehicles, including a human safety driver, being used by passengers in Miami Beach, Florida via Lyft's Ride Sharing Network. Have been Lyft owns about 2.5% of the company.

Startup Zox from Amazon, which plans to offer on-demand autonomous transportation in urban settings, is testing its fleet of Toyota Highlanders in the Bay Area, Seattle and Las Vegas, equipped with sensors and safety drivers. ۔

American and Asian auto, tech companies bet billions.

Following the opportunity, equity funding in AVTech companies reached $ 12 billion in 2021, up 50% from 2020, according to CB Insights. US funding is dominated by Waymo, which tops $ 5.5 billion, including Alphabet, and Cruise, backed by ، 10 billion from GM, Honda and other investors, and a $ 5 billion line from GM Financial. With off credit Pony.ai, founded in 2016 in collaboration with former Baidu AV lead developer Peng, has received $ 1.1 billion in funding, including a $ 400 million investment from Toyota.

Startups in the AV space have pig-backed on major automakers and ride-hailing services, for example, Motional, formed in 2021 through a joint venture with pilots with Hyundai and Lyft. Uber sold its self-driving unit to Advanced Technologies Group, Aurora Innovation, after Uber co-founder and former CEO Travis Kalanick preferred self-driving. Aurora, funded by Amazon, Hyundai, and venture firms Sequoia Capital and Greylock, is working to launch a commercial robotic truck system by the end of 2023, followed by a robotics project.

Many other segments of the market are being developed by commercial robotics companies as differentiators. One of the most innovative ways to diversify its search and advertising core, Baidu is providing its Apollo Go AV "brain" with Robo buses and other transit means in China, while providing automakers with Apollo self-driving solutions. Is. A Baidu spokesman said the Apollo Go's monthly price was comparable to the cost of a driver's ride in major Chinese cities over five years. The company is also selling intelligent transportation solutions with plans in 34 Chinese cities to improve traffic conditions, road safety and air quality. Baidu has teamed up with Geely (the Chinese owners of Volvo) to fund its intelligent electric vehicle business JIDU and to build a large-scale robot car for launch in 2023.

The production of robotic vehicles is expensive but is adopted as another strategy to commercialize the market. Cruise has partnered with GM and Honda to mass-produce the Origen, an all-electric self-driving, joint vehicle within a few years from GM's factory zero assembly plant in Detroit. Amazon-owned Zox has built dozens of custom-built, electric, autonomous robotics plants at its plant in Fremont, which are being launched gradually. I-Pacers and Chrysler Pacifica Hybrids, built in Waymo Detroit, are expanding their existing ride heel flats and will be collaborating with Gali, a Chinese carmaker equipped with all-electric, purpose-built AVs for American roads in the coming years. Is. Pony.ai has recently unveiled its sixth generation autonomous driving system, which is expected to be equipped with a seven-seater Toyota Cena model and will start road testing in China this year with robotics after 2023. Will be done

Robotic delivery services are also emerging as a viable path to commercial scale and profitability. Cruise's chief operating officer, Gil West, said Cruise has partnered with Walmart in the Phoenix area to provide groceries, and intends to expand the service nationally. Nuro is launching Silicon Valley Robotics in Autonomous Delivery, experimenting with running boot services for Walmart and Kroger customers in several cities, and recently added 7-Eleven customers to Mountain View. Uber began delivering food in Los Angeles this month using sidewalk robots and self-driving cars.

For the Zox, Amazon's delivery of the last mail from its shuttles is a potential scenario. Zoox CTO and co-founder Jesse Levinson said: "We have not ruled out this as a matter of use. "Our business model is charging people for the ride. The ride-sharing car carries the highest cost to the driver. We can reduce the cost of the car with these fares in five years."

This may sound contradictory, but AV is moving at perhaps the fastest pace in this developing market instead of long distance trucking. Jim Scheinman, founding managing partner of Maven Ventures and early investor in Cruise, notes that Embark Truck and other AV trucking companies will help the trillion-dollar market in many ways. "Not only will we be able to significantly reduce our shipping costs, which will continue to be important in a world of constant supply chain problems and inflation, but will also help to meet long-term labor shortages as well as Even in being more environmentally friendly, "Scheinman said. "Great victories for every other planet," he added.

A newcomer is the Pittsburgh-based Locomation, a hybrid semi-autonomous technology for two-truck convoys, with one driver in the lead vehicle overseeing the ride while the other follower is off-duty in the truck, resting. Is. "With trucking and driver shortages in freight demand, this helps solve a pain point," said Seton Merkley, co-founder of Locomotion, which is testing with three national trucking customers. "This system can double the efficiency of drivers, drive trucks more efficiently, and speed up delivery," he said. "Very much in the style of 2020, our opening was a trailer full of autonomous delivery TP."

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